ECB sees 'mild recession' in eurozone

AP - article link Benoit Coeure, an ECB executive board member, told Japan's Nikkei newspaper that growth was held back by scarce bank credit and necessary government budget-cutting because of problems with debt in some eurozone countries.

He added that higher oil prices and increased value-added taxes on consumer purchases in some countries had led the bank to raise its outlook for inflation but that "insofar as they are temporary, higher energy prices should not have a lasting impact on inflation.

" Coeure said that whether inflation rose over the longer term would depend on whether higher oil prices were reflected in higher wages, creating so-called second round effects or a wage-price spiral.

He said in an interview text made public Sunday that "there are good reasons to believe that second-round effects will be limited." Coeure is one of six members of the ECB's executive board, the body that runs the bank day to day at its Frankfurt headquarters. He also sits on the 23-member governing council, which decides interest rates. Higher prices have become part of the bank's discussion of the economy in recent days thanks to higher prices for crude and an easing of the eurozone debt crisis with a successful debt reduction and second bailout for Greece.

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Ron Paul Telll Bernanke He's Killing the Dollar

Ron Paul destroys Bernanke in a Q&A Session by bringing up the real rate of inflation (at least 9%) and at one point pulling out a silver dollar, which has maintained it's purchasing power rather well since Bernanke came into office in 2006.

Fed Bernanke refrains from signaling QE3

(Reuters) - The dollar gained against the euro and yen on Wednesday as factors ranging from month-end positioning to a European Central Bank cash infusion and lowered expectations of another Federal Reserve bond-buying binge raised the greenback's appeal. Robust U.S. data, which typically increases risk appetite, favored the dollar versus the euro as it highlighted a growing disparity between the economies on both sides of the Atlantic.

Ongoing financial strains in Europe prompted the ECB to infuse over a half a billion euros into financial markets. "The ECB's auction in some ways could be interpreted as form of quantitative easing," said Charles St-Arnaud, foreign exchange strategist at Nomura Securities in New York. link to full article on REUTERS

Tomorrow in the online traders room we will be looking for some nice range trades as this Dollar gain should some correction. Key level on usd/jpy in particular is what I will be looking to enter in. JOIN US TOMORROW March 1st ---------95% of people trading lose money, but not if you know what you are doing. Become successful and join the Group of 5% of Successful trader. Forex Insight Team can teach YOU to become within the 5% minority of people who are making money.

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The dollar turned higher against the euro after comments from Federal Reserve

AP - Good news for the dollar. Bond buying lowers interest rates and increases money supply. With more money in circulation, the value of the dollar that traders are holding decreases. The lower interest rates would make the dollar less attractive than other currencies that have higher interest rates.
The euro fell to $1.3337 in late trading Wednesday from $1.3459 late Tuesday.
Before Bernanke spoke, the euro rose against the dollar after the European Central Bank said it made $712.4 billion in low-interest loans to banks. The dollar rose to 81.18 Japanese yen from 80.55 yen and to 0.9039 Swiss franc from 0.8954 Swiss franc. AP link 95% of people trading lose money, but not if you know what you are doing. Become successful and join the Group of 5% of Successful trader. Forex Insight Team can teach YOU to become within the 5% minority of people who are making money.

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European sovereign yields are mixed, with Greece and Portuguese bonds still under pressure

 The Street - The euro had tested the upper end of its recent range in Asia, setting a new high for the week, but unable to absorb the large offers around $1.35. It came off after the LTRO results, but initial support in the $1.3420 area held. Additional support is seen near Tuesday's low. Sterling is benefiting from the combination of better domestic data and technical momentum after recently breaking through its 200-day moving average.

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Oil prices are off to the races this evening. Guardian Says Iran "Military Action Likely"

The Guardian is noting that US officials are commenting that "Sanctions are all we've got to throw at the problem. If they fail then it's hard to see how we don't move to the 'in extremis' option." The impact of any escalation from here is gravely concerning with PIMCO's $140 minimum and SocGen's $150-and-beyond Brent prices rapidly coming into focus source ZH LINK TO source writer  

From The Guardian: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making military action likely • Growing view that strike, by Israel or US, will happen • 'Sweet spot' for Israeli action identified as September-October • White House remains determined to give sanctions time "It's not that the Israelis believe the Iranians are on the brink of a bomb. It's that the Israelis may fear that the Iranian programme is on the brink of becoming out of reach of an Israeli military strike, which means it creates a 'now-or-never' moment," he said. "That's what's actually driving the timeline by the middle of this year. But there's a countervailing factor that [Ehud] Barak has mentioned – that they're not very close to making a decision and that they're also trying to ramp up concerns of an Israeli strike to drive the international community towards putting more pressure on the Iranians."

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Euro Debt Crisis Explained (Forex Insight) V.O.D.

The European debt crisis explained: The debt levels around the globe are unprecedented in peacetime. The odds of restructurings and/or defaults are higher than most believe. When does debt become unsustainable? The video shows the debt levels of numerous countries have reached "problem" levels. Since the bill coming due in the form of maturing bonds is so large, policymakers in Europe have no easy way out. "Solutions" may include printing money to create inflation or debt restructurings/defaults; or a combination of the two. - Ciovacco Capital

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this debt swap is actually a step towards a Greek default

It seems like nothing has changed for the positive here in terms of Greece's debt sustainability, the PSI is unchanged simply because the blocking-stake holders that we have been so adamantly describing will not budge (and why should they) and now we will likely see non-UK law sovereign bonds for Portugal (and perhaps Spain) also being sold again to avoid the long-arm of Draghi. FULL ARTICLE LINK LIVE TRADEROOM ACCESS LINK WITH FOREX TRADE PROFESSIONALS AND COACHES FOREX INSIGHT TEAM 7657 NW 50 ST MIAMI FLORIDA 33166 1-305-600-0895

Jim Rogers: I Would Not Buy Facebook

“No, that kind of stock I don’t buy. They are usually very, very expensive. A lot of people like to buy expensive stocks like that, but I do not,” said Rogers, a widely followed investor who has published several books on investing, co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros,

LINK on cnbc  
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Oil below $100 Forex Insight Video of Day

Commodities Tomorrow: Oil Below $100 - VIDEO OF DAY FEB 1
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The Greek economy is not productive enough to generate growth

Welcome Forex Insight Community members. I ran accross this article I wanted to share with all our traders. It is a really insightful article and as we have mentioned on commentary in our Daily online room and fundamental trade courses.

Please READ ON and here is link to Spiegel
Spiegel: "Greece has been living beyond its means for years," an unpublished study by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) concludes. "The consumption of goods has exceeded economic output by far.

" Especially devastating is the assessment that the DIW experts make about the condition of an industry that is generally seen as a potential engine for growth: tourism. According to the DIW study, the Greek tourism industry concentrates on the summer months, with almost nothing happening throughout the rest of the year. There is almost no tourism in the cities, which translates into low overall capacity utilization and high costs for hotel operators. By contrast, capacity utilization in the hotel sector is much more uniform in other Mediterranean countries.  

Resistance Mounts in Berlin This also applies to Merkel's center-right coalition government in Berlin, in which the first Greece package and the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) bailout fund were already hotly contested. Since then, resistance to additional German aid for debt-ridden countries has only grown. "Greece would be the most difficult decision by far for the parliamentary group," says Florian Toncar, the FDP's deputy parliamentary leader, who is a member of the party's pro-European wing. It is already clear that significantly more parliamentarians will refuse to go along with their leadership in the future.

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EU wants to take control of Greece's budget - 2nd Greek Bailout 145 Billion euros

from Spiegel:  
The situation in Athens is more dramatic: the EU wants to take control of Greece's budget, the rescue package for the ailing state amounts to SPIEGEL information on 145 instead of 130 billion euros.

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The situation in Athens is more dramatic: the EU wants to take control of Greece's budget, the rescue package for the ailing state amounts to SPIEGEL information on 145 instead of 130 billion euros. In Berlin, formed a broad resistance to further aid.

It's like a bottomless pit: the planned emergency measures for Greece are not enough to lead the country out of crisis. According to the troika of the EU Commission, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, the country still needs one additional 15 billion euros. Instead of 130 billion euros, as yet decided in late October last year, would be about 145 billion euros due, according to SPIEGEL information in the Troika, which started recently, her work in Athens again.

In the Berlon Coalition is forming, however, resistance to further Griechlandhilfen , as it has brought, among other things, the EU Commission comes into play. "At our attitude has not changed," said CSU leader Horst Seehofer in Der Spiegel. "For reform standstill, there is no money." The CSU reject new aid for Greece over the programs adopted out, Seehofer said. "If the Greeks do not implement the reform programs, it can give no further assistance."

German political support for a Greek bailout is next to zero: LINK to article on ZH

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Today the US debt target is $16.394 trillion - Forex Insight online room

The US debt target is $16.394 trillion, a number which will be breached before the end of the year, and possibly before the presidential election in November. As a reminder, in 2011, the US economy grew by 1.7%. It almost, but not quite, offset the growth of US debt held by the public, which grew at a brisk 11.3% pace in the past year...

Santelli: U.S. Has 'Company Credit Card' Forex Insight Group Live room

welcome to japan. and that the u.s. has a company credit card, and i think that what's going on if you want to be clinical and objective is that the fed is making sure we can finance our big debt for a very long time. markets, dollar gave up all its gains, two-year note yields dropped several basis points, the old five-year that we're currently trading is down at 78, closed at 90 yesterday, Classic RICK

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IMF has warned of a 20-30% oil price spike if Iranian exports are disrupted. Forex Insight team

The IMF warned that if the West imposed financial sanctions on Iran, it would be tantamount to an oil blockade, and the shock to the market could be as bad as from Libya's revolution last year.














Iran produces 5% of global oil output. The market is already pricing in a small risk of an escalation of tensions between Iran on the one hand, and the US, Europe and Israel on the other, according to the IMF's estimates.ran is the world's fifth-largest oil producer, extracting 3.5 million barrels a day. Other members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) have some 3.8 million barrels in spare capacity that could eventually be made available. READ original BBC LINK  



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ECB has come under pressure to participate in Greece’s PSI.

ECB has come under pressure to participate in Greece’s PSI. Reports that the IMF were pushing for this has quickly been denied. The ECB has also formally rejected participating. Nevertheless, Dallar

On one hand, the ECB sovereign bond purchases provides some liquidity to the private investors who want to get rid of their exposure and improve the transmission mechanism of monetary policy (or so claim ECB officials). On the other hand, their claim to senior status (first to get their money back, not participate in PSI) dilutes other investors. The legal basis of the ECB’s claim for preferential treatment seems elusive and done largely claimed by fiat. READ ALL of ARTICLE on Creditwritedown LINK


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Easing By The ECB May Be Coming Next Month

By creating a massive incentive for European banks to buy their government’s debt issuance up to three years maturity, the new ECB leader Mario Draghi is clearly seeking to get control over the direction of Eurozone government bond yields. The dramatic decline in Eurozone bond yields up to three years suggests he is getting some traction (see Figure 1). It is also the case that absolute-return investors may be tempted to “front run” coming bond auctions if they think the ECB policy is working. On this point, market talk is focusing on an even bigger amount to be borrowed at the next 3-year longer-term refinancing operation (LTRO) due on 29 February. GREED & fear has heard guesstimates of up to €1tn!
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Everything gets worse for Euro now

As the result of the Friday the 13th downgrades, everything gets much more difficult. The slow-motion train crash of economic and monetary union (EMU) has suddenly speeded up. The place in the film where the track breaks up and the railcars spill into the ravine cannot be far away. 

LINK TO MW article ->  

The Germans become more self-righteous, because they fear that, if they stray from the path of orthodoxy, France’s fate will be theirs. The French become more fractious, the Italians more irritated, the Greeks more gruesome.

Turning the EFSF rescue fund into a usable financing vehicle will become immeasurably more challenging now that its AAA rating is melting away. 

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Recession in Germany Economy ?

JAN 11th data out of germany show that even that economic heavyweight is starting to get hit by the slowing economy.



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China Inflation Eases to 15-Month Low

China's annual inflation eased to 4.1 percent December, the lowest level in 15 months, giving the government more room to tilt economic policy away from restraining prices and towards supporting sagging growth.

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