Oil prices are off to the races this evening. Guardian Says Iran "Military Action Likely"

The Guardian is noting that US officials are commenting that "Sanctions are all we've got to throw at the problem. If they fail then it's hard to see how we don't move to the 'in extremis' option." The impact of any escalation from here is gravely concerning with PIMCO's $140 minimum and SocGen's $150-and-beyond Brent prices rapidly coming into focus source ZH LINK TO source writer  

From The Guardian: US officials believe Iran sanctions will fail, making military action likely • Growing view that strike, by Israel or US, will happen • 'Sweet spot' for Israeli action identified as September-October • White House remains determined to give sanctions time "It's not that the Israelis believe the Iranians are on the brink of a bomb. It's that the Israelis may fear that the Iranian programme is on the brink of becoming out of reach of an Israeli military strike, which means it creates a 'now-or-never' moment," he said. "That's what's actually driving the timeline by the middle of this year. But there's a countervailing factor that [Ehud] Barak has mentioned – that they're not very close to making a decision and that they're also trying to ramp up concerns of an Israeli strike to drive the international community towards putting more pressure on the Iranians."

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IMF has warned of a 20-30% oil price spike if Iranian exports are disrupted. Forex Insight team

The IMF warned that if the West imposed financial sanctions on Iran, it would be tantamount to an oil blockade, and the shock to the market could be as bad as from Libya's revolution last year.














Iran produces 5% of global oil output. The market is already pricing in a small risk of an escalation of tensions between Iran on the one hand, and the US, Europe and Israel on the other, according to the IMF's estimates.ran is the world's fifth-largest oil producer, extracting 3.5 million barrels a day. Other members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) have some 3.8 million barrels in spare capacity that could eventually be made available. READ original BBC LINK  



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Russia, Iran Proceed With Bilateral Trade, Drop Dollar

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Russian warships patrolling the eastern Mediterranean Sea have docked at Russia's naval supply facility in the Syrian port of Tartus, the private Addounia TV reported Saturday