Monday, January 30, 2012

The Greek economy is not productive enough to generate growth




Welcome Forex Insight Community members. I ran accross this article I wanted to share with all our traders. It is a really insightful article and as we have mentioned on commentary in our Daily online room and fundamental trade courses.

Please READ ON and here is link to Spiegel
Spiegel: "Greece has been living beyond its means for years," an unpublished study by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) concludes. "The consumption of goods has exceeded economic output by far.

" Especially devastating is the assessment that the DIW experts make about the condition of an industry that is generally seen as a potential engine for growth: tourism. According to the DIW study, the Greek tourism industry concentrates on the summer months, with almost nothing happening throughout the rest of the year. There is almost no tourism in the cities, which translates into low overall capacity utilization and high costs for hotel operators. By contrast, capacity utilization in the hotel sector is much more uniform in other Mediterranean countries.  

Resistance Mounts in Berlin This also applies to Merkel's center-right coalition government in Berlin, in which the first Greece package and the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) bailout fund were already hotly contested. Since then, resistance to additional German aid for debt-ridden countries has only grown. "Greece would be the most difficult decision by far for the parliamentary group," says Florian Toncar, the FDP's deputy parliamentary leader, who is a member of the party's pro-European wing. It is already clear that significantly more parliamentarians will refuse to go along with their leadership in the future.

comments and how to trade this news this week link below

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Sunday, January 29, 2012

EU wants to take control of Greece's budget - 2nd Greek Bailout 145 Billion euros

from Spiegel:  
The situation in Athens is more dramatic: the EU wants to take control of Greece's budget, the rescue package for the ailing state amounts to SPIEGEL information on 145 instead of 130 billion euros.
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The situation in Athens is more dramatic: the EU wants to take control of Greece's budget, the rescue package for the ailing state amounts to SPIEGEL information on 145 instead of 130 billion euros. In Berlin, formed a broad resistance to further aid.

It's like a bottomless pit: the planned emergency measures for Greece are not enough to lead the country out of crisis. According to the troika of the EU Commission, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, the country still needs one additional 15 billion euros. Instead of 130 billion euros, as yet decided in late October last year, would be about 145 billion euros due, according to SPIEGEL information in the Troika, which started recently, her work in Athens again.

In the Berlon Coalition is forming, however, resistance to further Griechlandhilfen , as it has brought, among other things, the EU Commission comes into play. "At our attitude has not changed," said CSU leader Horst Seehofer in Der Spiegel. "For reform standstill, there is no money." The CSU reject new aid for Greece over the programs adopted out, Seehofer said. "If the Greeks do not implement the reform programs, it can give no further assistance."

German political support for a Greek bailout is next to zero: LINK to article on ZH

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Saturday, January 28, 2012

Today the US debt target is $16.394 trillion - Forex Insight online room



The US debt target is $16.394 trillion, a number which will be breached before the end of the year, and possibly before the presidential election in November. As a reminder, in 2011, the US economy grew by 1.7%. It almost, but not quite, offset the growth of US debt held by the public, which grew at a brisk 11.3% pace in the past year...

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Santelli: U.S. Has 'Company Credit Card' Forex Insight Group Live room

welcome to japan. and that the u.s. has a company credit card, and i think that what's going on if you want to be clinical and objective is that the fed is making sure we can finance our big debt for a very long time. markets, dollar gave up all its gains, two-year note yields dropped several basis points, the old five-year that we're currently trading is down at 78, closed at 90 yesterday, Classic RICK

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Wednesday, January 25, 2012

IMF has warned of a 20-30% oil price spike if Iranian exports are disrupted. Forex Insight team

The IMF warned that if the West imposed financial sanctions on Iran, it would be tantamount to an oil blockade, and the shock to the market could be as bad as from Libya's revolution last year.














Iran produces 5% of global oil output. The market is already pricing in a small risk of an escalation of tensions between Iran on the one hand, and the US, Europe and Israel on the other, according to the IMF's estimates.ran is the world's fifth-largest oil producer, extracting 3.5 million barrels a day. Other members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) have some 3.8 million barrels in spare capacity that could eventually be made available. READ original BBC LINK  



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ECB has come under pressure to participate in Greece’s PSI.

ECB has come under pressure to participate in Greece’s PSI. Reports that the IMF were pushing for this has quickly been denied. The ECB has also formally rejected participating. Nevertheless, Dallar






On one hand, the ECB sovereign bond purchases provides some liquidity to the private investors who want to get rid of their exposure and improve the transmission mechanism of monetary policy (or so claim ECB officials). On the other hand, their claim to senior status (first to get their money back, not participate in PSI) dilutes other investors. The legal basis of the ECB’s claim for preferential treatment seems elusive and done largely claimed by fiat. READ ALL of ARTICLE on Creditwritedown LINK


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Monday, January 16, 2012

Easing By The ECB May Be Coming Next Month

By creating a massive incentive for European banks to buy their government’s debt issuance up to three years maturity, the new ECB leader Mario Draghi is clearly seeking to get control over the direction of Eurozone government bond yields. The dramatic decline in Eurozone bond yields up to three years suggests he is getting some traction (see Figure 1). It is also the case that absolute-return investors may be tempted to “front run” coming bond auctions if they think the ECB policy is working. On this point, market talk is focusing on an even bigger amount to be borrowed at the next 3-year longer-term refinancing operation (LTRO) due on 29 February. GREED & fear has heard guesstimates of up to €1tn!
LINK TO FULL ARTICLE on zero
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Everything gets worse for Euro now

As the result of the Friday the 13th downgrades, everything gets much more difficult. The slow-motion train crash of economic and monetary union (EMU) has suddenly speeded up. The place in the film where the track breaks up and the railcars spill into the ravine cannot be far away. 

LINK TO MW article ->  


The Germans become more self-righteous, because they fear that, if they stray from the path of orthodoxy, France’s fate will be theirs. The French become more fractious, the Italians more irritated, the Greeks more gruesome.
Turning the EFSF rescue fund into a usable financing vehicle will become immeasurably more challenging now that its AAA rating is melting away. 


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Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Recession in Germany Economy ?

JAN 11th data out of germany show that even that economic heavyweight is starting to get hit by the slowing economy.



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China Inflation Eases to 15-Month Low

China's annual inflation eased to 4.1 percent December, the lowest level in 15 months, giving the government more room to tilt economic policy away from restraining prices and towards supporting sagging growth.
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Monday, January 9, 2012

Wall Street Shuffle (is the Game Rigged) does the Market really know what going on!





Put it together and see. Iran gets around 70% of their income from oil related products. Trade blocks by the West basically takes food off their tables. Imagine if 70% of your income was GONE. Wouldn't you be pissed???
Look at the move. Anyone who trades Iranian oil in currency other than U.S. Dollars is on the list of renegade nations? WTF? That is insane. It's like saying you have to pay for your food with sea shells and if you don't you cannot get food again!

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Huh? When the Fed expands its balance sheet these days it’s actually bullish for the dollar!?

 

The Balance of Assets & Liabilities for Irredeemable Fiat Currencies:


The more technical reason for this dynamic is that irredeemable fiat currencies trade at perennial discounts from imagined would-be ‘pars’. Before the early 1970s there was at least some vague attempt at maintaining redemption at some specific ‘par value’. This meant that if the market were to doubt the integrity of a currency issuer then that currency would fall to a ‘discount from par’. This would invite either a correcting drain on reserves (due to redemptions at par value), an outright debasement (more snidely referred to as a ‘revaluation’) or some kind of intervention to forestall the inevitable. But since there is no clearly identifiable promised ‘par’ at present we have a scenario where currencies trade at perennial discounts to the value that would be par if redemption were to resume with immediate effect.
The above characterizes the fact that fiat currencies are promises for maybe something (but probably nothing) at perhaps some time in the future (but probably never). In this way, the dollar-backed fiat currency represents a doubly precarious asset – for it’s a promise for maybe something maybe later (but probably nothing, never) for maybe something different at perhaps some later date (but probably nothing, never)!
.

shared article with Forex Insight Team  link to full origin  



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Sunday, January 8, 2012

Russia, Iran Proceed With Bilateral Trade, Drop Dollar

FOREX ARTICLE OF THE DAY


Shared Article (FOREX INSIGHTERS)
Russian warships patrolling the eastern Mediterranean Sea have docked at Russia's naval supply facility in the Syrian port of Tartus, the private Addounia TV reported Saturday

correlation between the s&p and euro/dollar has broken down. Euro Decoupling?




FOREX INSIGHT TEAM SHARE VIDEO OF WEEK -cnbc
Shocking has been the breakup of the euro and the s&p 500 and that's exactly what has happened this week. the question now is the split temporary or will they get back together and when will they.
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UBS' Releases Most Dire Prediction To Date: Greece To Experience "Coercive" Restructuring

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"We anticipate that the crisis will deteriorate further than the stressed levels of late November
 We do not believe that Greek PSI will take place in a “voluntary” fashion but instead expect coercive restructuring of Greek debt either before or soon after the March redemption, triggering CDS contracts.- Zeohedge

Further more - "I also don't know if Portugal will stay in the euro. And if it leaves, it will be to the escudoRead on from source  LINK




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Monday, January 2, 2012

"Nothing Shines Brighter Than SILVER"



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Sunday, January 1, 2012

Trading Physical Gold: Is Gold In A Bubble?


gbi-_gold_bullion_international

Happy New Year to all on this first day of January, 2012! This is the 1st installment (of 5) of my interview of the CEO of GBI (Gold Bullion International) Must view all great interview
PART 2
PART 3
PART 4

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